The mid-term essay will be the development of a general threat analysis of the US using the perspective of a foreign intelligence entity or service. Foreign Intelligence Entity (FIE) Threat Analysis The CIA’s Counterintelligence Center Analysis Group (CIC/AG) identifies, monitors, and analyzes the efforts of FIEs against US persons, activities, and interests. CIC/AG analysts focus on two specific types of counterintelligence threats to US national security:
1. Transnational threats, such as the counterintelligence aspect of terrorism or the threats posed by emerging or changing technologies to the US Government, intelligence operations, and US Government information systems; and
2. Threats posed by FIEs and their activities. Objective: This assignment, in accordance with undergraduate academic endeavors, provides an opportunity to evaluate assimilation of course topics, and sharpen and evaluate students’ research & critical thinking skills. The assignment is driven & tested by a combination of course materials and external self-led research (depending upon essay[s] selected); analyzed and presented in essay(s) form. Type: This assignment consists of a research analysis paper approximately six to eight pages in length, double-spaced (This page count does not include a title page, abstract (optional), table of contents (optional), Reference/Bibliography page(s), or Endnotes page(s) (if used)). The source material should result primarily from self-led external research of scholarly articles. In addition, the course required reading materials may be used. The paper should have six to eight pages of content which are the written results of your research efforts.
Topic: Develop a general threat analysis of a Foreign Intelligence Entity (FIE) of your choosing that is targeting the US. Examples include Russia’s SVR, Iran’s MOIS, Al Qaeda (or any of its ‘subsidiaries’), North Korea’s Reconnaissance Bureau, or Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Intelligence Service, etc. A FIE is any known or suspected foreign organization, person, or group (public, private, or governmental) that conducts intelligence activities to acquire U.S. information, block or impair U.S. intelligence collection, influence U.S. policy, or disrupt U.S. systems and programs. This term includes a foreign intelligence and security service [FISS] and international terrorist organizations. (JP 1-02; JP 2-01.2, CI & HUMINT in Joint Operations, 16 Mar 2011; and DoDD 5240.06, CIAR, 17 May 2011) The components of your FIE threat analysis should include a full overview of the FIE (strength, location, organizational structures (if known), whether they operate under official cover or operate under unofficial cover–inside corporations, etc.). Detail the FIE’s mission, and specific known and suspected US targets. [Do not select the People’s Republic of China (PRC – Mainland or Communist China) as your FIE, since this is the focus of the Final Essay — a paper on the PRC will not be accepted.] Your FIE threat analysis should use the three general threat categories: low, medium, and high, to estimate the FIE’s threat against the following types of US targets: 1) personnel, installations, and facilities 2) technology, defense industry, and communications 3) sensitive military and intelligence operations, such as intelligence collection, research & development, covert action, identifying US intelligence personnel, etc. For each of these three areas, research open sources and include specific details of that research to justify your FIE threat assessment. Use events, dates, activities, names, places, etc., to back up your analysis and conclusions. Note: If you are not a US citizen, then you can choose to do an assessment of a selected FIE threat against your own country. Format: Your paper requires a Title page, citations, and a bibliography. Your paper should be in the Chicago/Turabian format (http://www.apus.edu/Online-Library/tutorials/chicago.htm) — Also see the Turabian Quick Guide in the Resources.