Expected Value Decision Analysis

Expected Value Decision Analysis

Order Description

Introduction:

A company is considering alternatives for improving profits: either develop new products or consolidate existing products. If the company decides to develop new products, it can either develop several products rapidly or take time to develop a few products more thoroughly. If the company chooses to consolidate existing products, it can either strengthen the products to improve profits or simply reap whatever gains are attainable without investing more time and money into the products.

Scenario:

The decision tree chart provided in the attached “QAT1 Task 5 Spreadsheet” shows the predicted gains from each decision alternative described above. Gains depend on how the market reacts to the action taken by the company. The probability of each market reaction is shown on the decision tree.

Requirements:

Note: When the files opens, enter your name and student ID as they appear in Taskstream into the respective boxes so the task questions and problems will populate the worksheet. If the attached template does not open or is missing information, please contact Ecare for assistance with opening the file.

A. Develop a response to the decision tree chart from the attached “QAT1 Task 5 Spreadsheet” in which you do the following:
1. Determine the expected value for each of the four decision branches.
a. Describe the process used to reach the solutions you determined in part A1.
2. Determine the decision alternative that has the most favorable expected value.
a. Compare the expected values of the decision alternatives.

B. When you use sources, include all in-text citations and references in APA format.

Note: For definitions of terms commonly used in the rubric, see the Rubric Terms web link included in the Evaluation Procedures section.

Note: When using sources to support ideas and elements in an assessment, the submission MUST include APA formatted in-text citations with a corresponding reference list for any direct quotes or paraphrasing. It is not necessary to list sources that were consulted if they have not been quoted or paraphrased in the text of the assessment.

Note: No more than a combined total of 30% of a submission can be directly quoted or closely paraphrased from outside sources, even if cited correctly. For tips on using APA style, please refer to the APA Handout web link included in the APA Guidelines section.

Evaluation Rubric:
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value: 0.00 value: 1.00 value: 2.00 Score/Level
Articulation of Response (clarity, organization, mechanics)

The candidate provides unsatisfactory articulation of response.
The candidate provides weak articulation of response.
The candidate provides adequate articulation of response.

A1. Expected Value

The candidate does not accurately determine the expected value for any of the decision branches.
The candidate accurately determines the expected value for 1–3 of the decision branches.
The candidate accurately determines the expected value for each of the 4 decision branches.

A1a. Process Description

The candidate does not provide an appropriate description of the process used to reach the solutions determined in part A1.
The candidate provides an appropriate description, with insufficient support, of the process used to reach the solutions determined in part A1.
The candidate provides an appropriate description, with sufficient support, of the process used to reach the solutions determined in part A1.

A2. Decision Alternatives

The candidate does not accurately determine the decision alternative that has the most favorable expected value.
Not applicable.
The candidate accurately determines the decision alternative that has the most favorable expected value.

A2a. Expected Value Comparison

The candidate does not provide an appropriate comparison of the expected values of the decision alternatives.
The candidate provides an appropriate comparison, with insufficient support, of the expected values of the decision alternatives.
The candidate provides an appropriate comparison, with sufficient support, of the expected values of the decision alternatives.

B. Sources

When the candidate uses sources, the candidate does not provide in-text citations and references.
When the candidate uses sources, the candidate provides appropriate in-text citations and references with major deviations from APA style.
When the candidate uses sources, the candidate provides appropriate in-text citations and references accurately or with only minor deviations from APA style.